Agrimonde – Scenarios and Challenges for Feeding the World by Sandrine Paillard, Sébastien Treyer, Bruno Dorin

By Sandrine Paillard, Sébastien Treyer, Bruno Dorin

How will the area manage to feed as regards to nine billion humans in 2050 and nonetheless continue the ecosystems? during this point of view, INRA and CIRAD introduced the initiative, in 2006, to enhance a foresight venture for analysing matters bearing on the world's foodstuff and agricultural platforms at the 2050 timeline. This booklet offers an artificial presentation of the most conclusions that this foresight undertaking has yielded. First, it recapitulates the most statistical references for the interval 1961 to 2003, sooner than occurring to explain the Agribiom simulation device used to calculate nutrients biomass source use balances. situations at the 2050 timeline are then thought of: Agrimonde move is a trend-based state of affairs that bets on fiscal progress to feed the realm, in a context the place environmental safeguard isn't really a concern; by contrast, the assumption in Agrimonde 1 is to feed the area whereas retaining its ecosystems.

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Extra resources for Agrimonde – Scenarios and Challenges for Feeding the World in 2050

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2 million cells of 5 min latitude/longitude), • the slopes (digital elevation model GTOPO30 at 30 arc-second latitude/longitude), • the “current” land occupation (12 “aggregate” types of occupation drawn from GLCC maps at 30 arc-seconds latitude/longitude, based on satellite images probably taken in 1992/1993). 19 1 degree (60 min) at the equator is equivalent to about 111 km; 30 arc-seconds = 1 minute = 1,854 km at the equator. 18 B. Dorin and T. L. ), 3 tubers (8 crop-types: 4 potatoes, 1 manioc, 3 sweet-potatoes), 3 peas and lentils (17 crop-types), 6 oilseeds (25 crop-types, of which 1 palm and 1 olive), 1 fibre (7 crop-types for cotton), 2 sugar crops (6 crop-types: 1 sugar cane and 5 sugar beet), 1 fruit (banana/plantain) and 3 fodder (5 crop-types: 1 alfalfa, 4 pastures of forage grass, 4 pastures of leguminous fodder plants), • 3 levels of input and management, successively labelled “low” (no use of ­chemical fertilisers, pesticides or improved seed), “intermediate” (use of certain “modern” inputs and partial mechanisation) and “high” (similar to commercial farming as practised in Western Europe and North America).

G. 2003) chosen to serve as a reference for the study of other simulations, are integrated into a use section called “Residue”.

G. ) • with different functional forms, especially linear and quadratic. 37 38 Reminder: 1 g of proteins provides 4 kcal on average. Annual production increase not explained by the production factors of the production function. 30 B. Dorin and T. L. g. increase or decrease in the protein content of the feed), • based on a system of two equations (production of proteins from rumi on the one hand and from mono on the other), with three explanatory factors: proteins from feed (plant and animal origin), hectares of pasture, and level of production of the “substitute” output (production of mono in production functions of rumi, and vice-versa).

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