By Paul Collier, V. L Elliott, Havard Hegre, Anke Hoeffler, Marta Reynal-Querol, Nicholas Sambanis
Civil wars allure less consciousness than overseas wars yet they're changing into more and more universal and usually cross on for years. the place improvement succeeds, international locations develop into steadily more secure from violent clash, making next improvement more straightforward. the place improvement fails international locations can turn into trapped in a vicious circle: warfare wrecks the financial system and raises the chance of additional battle. This new global financial institution coverage learn file demanding situations the assumption that civil wars are inevitable and proposes an schedule for international motion.
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Extra resources for Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy (World Bank Policy Research Reports)
This is consistent with the capital flight story, in that a short war may not give people enough time to shift their assets abroad, so they continue with capital flight even after the war is over. Chapter 5 discusses the postconflict economic recovery in detail with a focus on national and global policies. The pace of postconflict recovery is highly dependent on national policy choices and the scale and nature of international support. Recovery is not an automatic process of bouncing back. Even in successful recoveries the process is slow.
Not the most important regional economic spillover. Other effects are on the military budget, the costs of transport, and the reputation of the region in relation to investors. 1). Both in response to the risk of a civil war, and especially once it has started, a government tends to increase its military expenditure sharply, typically by around two percentage points of GDP. Unfortunately, one of the strongest influences on the level of military expenditure a government chooses is the level its neighbors have chosen (Collier and Hoeffler 2002d).
Second, refugees from war stay in asylum camps for long periods after the war ends, whereas once droughts and famines end refugees can quickly return home. Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2002) find that refugees from drought who come to tropical asylum countries have no significant effect on the incidence of malaria in the asylum country. Refugees and the Spread of HIV/AIDS. Refugees and other displaced populations are at increased risk of contracting HIV/AIDS during and after displacement because of poverty; disruption of family and social structures and of health services; increased sexual violence; and increased socioeconomic vulnerability, particularly among women and youth.